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¿Question #4027?
[Deleted user]: [deleted question]

magikaru: Chances of winning if switch: 66%
forthur: Yes. Mathematics for the win!
Woelf: Mathematically you are slightly better off switching doors, but if I really wanted to the good prize I would have picked that door in the first place.
Phil Fleischmann: It's amazing how many people - gamers, who should know better - still get this wrong. Yes, you switch. An equivalent question would be if instead of opening a door and letting you switch to the other closed door, he simply lets you switch to *both* of the other doors. Two picks = twice as likely to win.
gibbsman: Definitely
Spirit of 70: No.
aleo09: ...
caitlinsquared: switch
Venton: No
powwowdancer: Don't waffle... it's a sign of self-doubt.
Mors: I switch.
gjerde: Of course. It's an explicitly stated part of your premise that I would be unable to resist doing so (even if I were stupid enough not to realise that this would double my odds)
mtlawson: Yes.
Farren: But of course. Anything to improve my odds.
Ardos: Hell no! Clones are always evil, so don't trust the clone.
odinsfirecracker: No
atrium: Yes
burbidge: No.
Blade Spirit: No...though it is easy for me to say that at my computer screen.:p
DHEK: Yes, of course. Switching increases your chances.
jeffwolfe: Yes.
elirlandes: Good grief.
arkibet: of course
monkeyrobot: I never switch my picks after choosing a door. It´s against the spirit of the game. You chose door C, you stay with it, go home and end of the story.
Gnarlythotep: Nope. I've made my choice, and it's the one that stands.
mswitlik: no
maumau: Do you think i should?
2amp: no. i walked in with nothing, so i'll take a 50-50 on a zonk/prize
pethulhu: switch, of course, as this rises the chance to win to 2/3
airborne101: no way hase
POvidiusNaso: Yes.
jjloc: yes
GrimJester: switch, of course
Son of Murray: Yes. Google "Monty Hall Problem" for the answer why, but in a nutshell, the odds were against you on the first choice, but now he just eliminated a dud prize.
Greedo: Mathmatically unnecessary to switch the pick based on the the information given in your question. So I stick with my first choice.
ellephai: What difference does it make? But no.
Jowjow: Nope.
dkwd: Nope
them: I switch my pick to my right hand so I can cover the show's stage-goons with my uzi whilst I bury said pick in the Clone's heart (or where it would be if it had one) for trying to start another specious probability argument predicated on assumptions not in evidence.
Russ G.: According to probability, I will improve my chances if I do. But... I have a hard time convincing myself. Perhaps that's the definition of a geek: you know better, but you keep doing what you're doing anyway....
JCooperofCharity: Of course you switch, as you now have a 2/3 chance of being correct. Initially you had a 2/3 chance of being wrong, therefore 2/3 says it's the other 1 of the 2. If you don't believe me, I can show you a program that simulates switching every time for as many trials you want. I've done up to 1 Billion and it came out with a 66.66% Rate of wins. (Programmed with JCreator)
vampywife: no
OzGamer: Yes
cobbz20: Yes, and I used to know why, but now I forgot.
Nekura: If it's a dud prize, you've got nothing to lose by switching.
engdy: Yes indeedy!
hacksword: Yes. there's a 2/3 chance that the good prize is behind the other door.
Bad News [bnw]: yes
jnycash81: No. Assuming that at least one dude cannot be chosen (only picking one door) and that a dud will ALWAYS be revealed, it basically boils down to a 50/50 split between the remaining doors. I think this has supposedly been mathematically proven otherwise, but I still can't grasp how...
lauramath: No
jasta6: What do you think.............................................................YES...
bekudno: *sigh* Yes...
korppu: No
Famous Mortimer: Oh yeah.
Loquutus: Only if I can kick him in the nuts first.
scriptorum: You switch. This is my favorite riddle.
ZombyDawg: No, I've already chosen
xlorp: If playing to the odds, then yes. If you've already peeked behind one of the other two doors then you would have perfect knowledge and act accordingly. But in my game they would all be duds and the Clone Host (TM) would shoot cheaters.
GI Joe: I can't believe you dredged this up. IF Monty has knowledge such that he always opens a dud door, then switching your pick will result in you being twice as likely to win the prize. If, on the other hand, Monty has no knowledge and opens a random door, then whether you switch or not makes no difference to your chances of winning the prize.
Jim_P: Yes
puzzleme: Switch! Increases your odds of winning from 1/3 to 2/3.
puffinge: You should definitely switch. It's the mathematically correct thing to do.
Dr. No: no, have a backbone, stick with your first choise
GrandpaDave: Depends if the dud is a farm animal.
matthew.marquand: yes..always
Culvan: Definitely switch. I sat through stats class for a reason.
Mikebegeta: why not
snoozefest: no
Lord_Prussian: No
chaddyboy_2000: No.
CDRodeffer: No! Don't switch!
dakarp: yes.
jttm: No
ValJor: Yes
Spielfreak: Never. Always go with your first instinct. Besides, I like goats.
skelebone: Mathematically, you should. Has something to do with the fact that each door has a 1/3 chance of being the prize, but when they reveal the dud, the door you initially chose still has a 1/3 chance of being the prize, whereas the other door has a 2/3 chance of being the prize, through the elimination of one door.